Manufacturing remains in recession. Economies in some swing states lag the stronger national numbers. Businesses are preserving cash instead of deploying it for expansion. And the president has not delivered the “YUGE“ growth numbers he promised on the campaign trail.

As year four unfolds, several key numbers and trends will determine just how much the economy will help Trump overcome impeachment, low approval ratings and serious shortcomings with women and minority voters.

“The stock market he’s got. Wages he’s got. The consumer side of the economy is working really well,” said Gary Cohn, Trump’s first National Economic Council director. “The soft underbelly is [that] capital expenditure is not there.“

“He stood there in Pennsylvania and talked about bringing steel mills back and what’s happened is we’ve cut steel lines,” Cohn said. “We gave companies a big tax cut then took it away with tariffs. These are the pieces that are missing. I think he could have had it all. And he doesn’t have it all.”