The Democratic National Committee’s primary rules stipulate that a candidate must win 15 percent of the vote statewide or 15 percent by any congressional district in order to collect any delegates. Internal models do not show Bloomberg above 10 percent in any of the first four early voting states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, where he is intentionally ceding by bypassing campaigning there–or any district in the 15 delegate-rich states set to vote on March 3.

“Based on polling I’ve seen, both public and private, Bloomberg isn’t on track to pick up a single delegate on the Super Tuesday states, even places he’s got endorsements,” one unattached top strategist familiar with the delegate process told The Daily Beast. “Not nearly enough to get to 15 percent right now.”

The internal models are particularly problematic given that Bloomberg’s unconventional primary strategy rests on a strong Super Tuesday showing. Having decided to opt out of competing in the first four states—a tactic none of his rivals have used—his campaign is strategizing around the March 3 event’s potential to kick off a wave of successes that will ultimately translate into a win for the Democratic nomination. Flooding the airwaves with ads and investing heavily in staffers, including top operatives in key states, have factored largely into the campaign’s calculus for winning large amounts of the delegates up for grabs on that day.