If Sanders looks strong, the moderate wing of the party and those concerned about electability will be scrambling. Despite Michael Bloomberg’s expenditures, Biden is the only realistic option. The top priority of the Culinary union here in Nevada is protecting its union-run health care system. Sanders’ “Medicare for All” proposal would threaten it. The Culinary could push Biden over the top in Nevada with an endorsement. Nevada state Sen. Yvanna Cancela, past political director of Culinary, was an early Biden supporter. I expect Culinary’s parent union to pick Biden if it issues an endorsement.

After peaking in October, Warren is fading. She looks finished as a threat to win. I think an unexpected victory or strong finish by Klobuchar in Iowa would be more threatening to Biden than a Buttigieg or Sanders win. She could attract attention from more moderate Democrats and those most concerned about electability.

Even if Biden is limping into South Carolina, he should do well among an electorate where African-Americans will likely be a majority of voters. That would give him momentum heading into Super Tuesday on March 3, when one-third of the delegates will be awarded.