A year into this election cycle, the overall Senate landscape generally looks much like I thought it would. The races that seemed likely to be the most competitive are, in fact, the most competitive today. And, if the race ratings don’t quite reflect it yet, Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk.
Whether it’s a discussion about general themes in Senate contests, or a race-by-race analysis, the parties hold very different views on how the cycle is progressing. While Democrats say that Senate Republican incumbents’ allegiance to President Trump is enough to turn off voters, particularly in suburb-heavy swing states, and cost them seats and the majority, Republicans counter that Democratic challengers are tainted with progressive agenda items like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal even if they won’t talk about these issues. If Trump is Democrats’ poster child, then U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is theirs.
This difference of opinion extends to impeachment. Recent polls have shown Trump’s job approval numbers have ticked up a bit during the House’s consideration of the Articles of Impeachment.