As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver pointed out back in 2012, reelection outcomes are predicted well when you combine approval ratings with job growth. To use another example besides Reagan, poor job growth in 1980 helped sink both Carter’s approval rating and his reelection hopes.

So what happens if Trump’s approval rating is the same in 100 days as it is now and the economy grows at the same rate it currently is through the election? Based on history, Trump would be forecasted to lose by a few points.

Like when only accounting for approval ratings, it would be a race within the margin of error.

Still, you can clearly see how history points to an uphill climb for Trump. Combine that with the fact that his approval ratings have been consistently low, and there’s no reason to believe the underlying political environment will change dramatically by Election Day if things hold over the next 100 days.