Were the Supreme Court to reject Trump’s petition to review the Circuit Court’s affirmance of the Vance subpoena and prosecutors were to believe there was evidence of wrongdoing, a criminal indictment of the Trump Organization and its key officers, setting out in copious detail allegations of taxpayer fraud and related business crimes, could dominate the headlines during the 2020 election cycle. This would be true whether Trump is a defendant or an unindicted co-conspirator. A published Congressional Committee report to the same effect would have the same catastrophic result for the President and his family. While the President’s supporters have stuck with him through thick and thin, I suggest it is more than likely that a significant chunk of the blue-collar-worker segment of the Trump base — the men and women who pay taxes on their hard-earned dollars — would take justifiable offense if this rich guy were credibly accused of getting a free ride on the backs of their labor.
If the Court took the case and held an accelerated hearing that resulted in disclosure of the documents no later than February or March of 2020, the result likely would be the same.
In either event, if the documents revealed that the Trump clan had cheated honest taxpayers, the public outcry might well move the family to seek a deal.
Both prior Article II resignations successfully saved their subjects from post-resignation indictment: Vice President Spiro Agnew, whom I represented, via an agreement with the prosecution, and President Nixon via a pardon by his successor. To avoid both federal and state indictment, Trump would likely need both the agreement and the pardon.