“Erdoğan is betting on that once again: that Trump will prevent devastating sanctions against Turkey’s economy and military following the incursion,” said Cagaptay.

For the moment, that bet appears to be paying off. Amid a furious push in Congress to punish Turkey economically, Trump on Monday authorized sanctions against those associated with “Turkey’s destabilizing actions in northeast Syria,” while also hiking steel tariffs against the country and suspending trade negotiations between Washington and Ankara.

Thus far, however, the sanctions extend to only three Turkish officials and the nation’s defense and energy ministries. The tariffs are likely to have a muted impact because Turkish steel exports to the United States have already plummeted as a result of previous U.S. duties, and a U.S.-Turkey trade deal was nowhere close to being finalized. Fellow members of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition, who are now watching in horror as gains against the terrorist group are reversed, have arguably adopted tougher measures in response to the Turkish incursion than the United States has. France and Germany, for instance, have prohibited arms exports to Turkey. Republican and Democratic lawmakers are pledging their own reprisal, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi calling for a bipartisan resolution to overturn Trump’s Syria decision and stronger sanctions than the White House’s.