The fact that Trump has never shared specific internal numbers militates against the possibility that he’s telling the truth. The president has tweeted classified imagery before and otherwise made public information that usually would not be revealed. If he is unbothered by federal classification guidelines, surely he wouldn’t hesitate to post flattering campaign info. If “Our Polls” were truly that fantastic, wouldn’t Trump post a screenshot?

Yet we also have the evidence of Trump’s campaign rally locations to consider. Again, Minnesota is a Democratic stronghold and has been for decades. The bulk of the population is here in the Twin Cities, where in local races the general election line-up looks like a Democratic primary. But Trump keeps visiting. He came to Duluth in June of last year, to Rochester last October, and to Minneapolis itself a few weeks ago.

This is noteworthy because, as a Rolling Stone report on the Duluth rally noted, “Trump does not tend to visit states he cannot in some way claim as his.” Moreover, if he’s following the 2016 script — lots of rallies and targeted online advertising in states deemed winnable, but little in the way of traditional, in-person ground game — these events shed important light on Trump’s 2020 strategy. There are other plausible explanations for the president’s Minnesota trips, like that one of his favorite Democratic punching bags, Rep. Ilhan Omar, represents Minneapolis. Still, that can’t explain the rallies in Duluth and Rochester. What can explain them is the Trump campaign sincerely thinking Minnesota is in pla