Which, of course, raises the next question: What is this going to mean politically? Democrats and liberals now find themselves in the uncomfortable position of secretly wishing the recession would come as quickly as possible so that the American public might blame President Trump for it and kick him out of office.
They know the economy’s relative strength will be the key reason Trump is reelected, if he is reelected. Since the beginning of his presidency, GDP growth has averaged 2.9% and the unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for 17 straight months. The jobless rate now hovers at a 50-year low. Average wages have grown 3.2% from July 2018 to July 2019.
Now Democrats could do what Walter Mondale did in 1984 and run a campaign telling people the economy isn’t better when people know the economy is better. The thing is, Mondale lost 49 states. Probably not the best idea.
That’s why Democratic complaints about the economy have focused on fairness questions — that the benefits of the Trump economy have been unequally distributed. The rich have gotten richer at a faster and greater rate than the average person has seen his wages increase.