How much trouble could Mark Sanford cause Trump in the 2020 primary?

One other factor that might encourage Sanford to run is South Carolina’s early position on the presidential primary calendar. The “First in the South” contest has voted third (behind Iowa and New Hampshire) in the past two Republican contests and would presumably go early once again in 2020 — if the GOP even has a primary there. South Carolina Republicans have said they might not hold a primary in 2020, but Republican Gov. Henry McMaster has said he would support GOP primary if a legitimate challenger to Trump got into the race. Nonetheless, even if Sanford ran and South Carolina held its primary, Trump is quite popular among Republicans in the state — an April poll from Winthrop University found his approval among Republicans and independents who lean Republican to be 79 percent. That might seem low — Gallup has Trump’s approval among Republicans at about 90 percent — but the inclusion of independent GOP leaners probably explains the difference.1

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So even if there are some Republican voters who say they oppose Trump or are open to backing a challenger, the percentage who would be willing to support an opponent is too small to seriously threaten Trump’s renomination chances. And that’s because Trump’s approval among Republican primary voters nationally is 85 percent, according to recent data from Morning Consult. Trump is also regularly polling north of 80 percent in head-to-head matchups against Weld. So even if Sanford were a stronger challenger than Weld, it’s hard to see any path to victory — the numbers just aren’t there.

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