President Donald Trump wants to slap tariffs on Mexico if it doesn’t slow migration to the United States, but experts on trade and Latin America warn that the measures could end up driving even more people to head north.

Frustrated by continued arrival of migrants fleeing poverty and violence in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras at the U.S. border, Trump said Tuesday that he would start imposing a 5% tariff on imports from Mexico, increasing to 25% in monthly increments through Oct. 1 if the country fails to take unspecified steps to halt the migration.

But the tariffs would probably push the already-stagnant Mexican economy into recession, sending a new wave of migrants north, as similar conditions did in the early 2000s, said Shannon O’Neil, a senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.