Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, “found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.”

“Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them.”

“Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.”