The truth is, we don’t know why Trump is so unpopular, especially at a moment of relative peace and prosperity for the U.S. It could be the various scandals. It could be his refusal to behave like a normal president. It could be that his divisive campaign permanently alienated a lot of people. It could also be the specific unpopular public-policy positions he holds, whether it’s the tax law, health care, immigration, his border wall or some combination.

But whatever the reason, it’s hard to believe that a president could be reelected when more than half the country thinks he’s doing a bad job. And if nothing so far has shaken Trump’s unpopularity, what’s going to happen in the next 19 months to do so?