There are two diametrically opposed lines of thinking about Trump-Russia special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. The first is that he is winding down his probe and is unlikely to allege that the Trump campaign and Russia conspired to fix the 2016 presidential election. The second is that he is still going strong, with the biggest charges, perhaps including the fabled collusion allegation, yet to come.

Which is correct? No one outside the Mueller office knows. There are data points, or at least tea leaves, pointing in all directions. But whatever the reality is, there is at this moment a sense that something is imminent from Mueller, and that sense is shaping Trump-Russia politics.