In 2018 Republicans lost seats in the suburbs of Richmond, Houston, Kansas City, Charleston, Chicago, Denver, Atlanta, Virginia Beach, Des Moines, Orange County, Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Salt Lake. You may recall that in 2010 Democrats lost their “Blue Dogs”—the Dems who had represented small towns and rural areas in the south—and now may never see those seats again. Republicans are now in danger of having the same kind of permanent shift in the suburbs. And it will be permanent if party leaders refuse to recognize that the GOP is losing everyone but old-ish (and older) white men.
The reason people like Dwyer don’t like Stefanik is because she’s right. The GOP is facing a demographic crisis by turning its back on more than half of the voting population. Only 25 percent of women fully identified as Republicans in 2017, down from 27 percent in 2016. And small changes matter when 52 percent of the votes cast in these last midterms were by women.
And none of this has been lost on Democrats. The House GOP conference now has only 13 women in its ranks—the least since 1994—while Democrats have 89. The House GOP conference is now 90 percent—read that again: 90 percent—white and male.