Why Beto’s a bad bet for Democrats

But in reality, he more closely resembles another retro Democratic politician who is now viewed as one of the least successful presidential nominees in the modern era: George McGovern.

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History repeats itself, and the notion of a youth-inspired progressive candidacy toppling more-established challengers is nothing new. It happened in 1972, another major inflection point for the Democratic Party when old rules favoring the establishment were discarded in favor of aiding a progressive insurgency. At the time, the liberal echo chamber was insular enough that the late film reviewer Pauline Kael reportedly expressed shock at Richard Nixon’s 49-state reelection victory.

If Democrats nominate a candidate like O’Rourke eager to lean in on the polarizing culture wars, it would be the greatest gift Trump could receive. A Democratic bet on Beto would be a rebuke of the party’s carefully crafted and successful congressional strategy of 2018, with Democratic leaders advising their candidates to focus on bread-and-butter economic issues over polarizing cultural fights. O’Rourke’s viral moment defending the NFL players taking a knee during the anthem was a hit with his core supporters, but was critical fodder in motivating a disengaged Republican base. (The issue isn’t a hit with swing voters, either: 54 percent viewed such kneeling during the anthem as inappropriate in an August 2018 NBC/Wall Street Journal survey.)

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