Right now, Republicans will enter the next Congress with at least 53 seats and probably 54 given that Martha McSally’s grip is tightening on the Arizona. Though there’s still an outside chance Republicans will get take Montana, it seems like there are enough outstanding votes in Democratic strongholds to put Sen. Jon Tester over the top.

When looking toward 2020 Senate races, the first step is to immediately deduct an additional seat from Democrats, because they are not going to hold Alabama during a presidential election year with Trump on top of the Republican ticket and when Roy Moore is not the GOP nominee.

So that means most likely Democrats are going to have to flip five seats. But as shown in the interactive graphic below, there aren’t many pickup opportunities. Just two GOP Senators — Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine — are in states that Trump lost. If Democrats win those seats, to get to 50 (assuming a Democratic Vice President gets elected and becomes the tie-breaking vote) Democrats would have to win three out of the following five states: Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina. Every other Republican-held seat is in a state that Trump carried by double digits in 2016.