SwingSeat’s topline is still basically unchanged from when it was debuted in June. There are a few reasons for that.
First, most of the polls we’ve seen so far have reinforced our existing ideas about races. Ted Cruz still looks solid in Texas. In Arizona, Krysten Sinema has a real lead for now. The race is close in Florida. Republicans probably won’t knock off Democratic incumbents in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Ohio. I could go on, but the basic idea is clear—not a lot of what we’ve seen over the last few weeks has surprised SwingSeat.
Second, we haven’t seen a ton of new polling in under-polled races. I always appreciate getting more polls in Florida, Texas and Arizona. But SwingSeat is a lot less sure of its estimates in states like Montana, Indiana, or North Dakota where there aren’t many polls and the polls we do have are often old. If we got new information in some of the under-polled states, the model would move more.
Finally (and most importantly) the new data doesn’t change the 30,000-foot picture in the senate.