The possibility that a plurality, perhaps even a majority, of Americans could come to see Trump as a success is an anathema to this crowd. Why this is the case is perhaps the most interesting question in politics. But we see this happen over and over again, and not just in the United States. British commentators never saw Brexit coming, and European journalists refused to see that Italy might reject all established parties in March’s elections. Each piece of data that suggested the journalists’ priors were correct was reported with confidence; each piece of data that pointed otherwise was dismissed or distinguished. It is almost as if those whose job it is to report and comment upon country’s politics simply could not see what was happening before their very eyes.

I am not a Trump fan by any stretch of the imagination, yet it strikes me as fairly obvious why many Americans would like the president or think he is doing a good job. Some Americans have been so disaffected by economic changes of the last decade that they see Trump’s enthusiastic embrace of American jobs for American workers as a breath of fresh air. Others find his staunch support of American security as reassuring. Trump’s proposed Muslim ban enrages many of his opponents, but the polling data suggests that this more than any other proposal is what made him president.