Nevertheless, as we consider the “great and awesome” blue wave in 2018, it’s worth remembering the Tea Party wave of 2010. That year, 85 percent of House incumbents won. Put in perspective, that supposed seismic election was the worst reelection average for House incumbents in the last 40 years. It’s not unusual in most off-year midterms for incumbents to have a 94-98 percent re-election rate. In fact, the average reelection rate for U.S. House incumbents since World War II has been 93 percent.
This isn’t to say Democrats lack a path to retake the House in 2018. An activist state Supreme Court in Pennsylvania gave the Left a huge leg up when it overturned the will of the people’s elected representatives and redrew the state’s congressional district lines in the state to favor the Democrats. Now upwards of seven Republican seats are in play.
As a number of Republicans retire and choose not to run, the party has lost the power of incumbency in dozens of seats, making it the perfect time for Democrats to snatch up the 23 seats they need to seize the majority. But even then it should be remembered that of the 23 Republican districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016, only six of those incumbents are retiring. The overwhelming majority of seats will have incumbents in them.