Is the Trump bump real?

Survey Monkey’s Mark Blumenthal found that Trump’s recent uptick in their survey data is coming mostly from Republicans. Trump’s job approval among Republicans went from 84 percent last fall, to 88 percent in 2018. Working to Trump’s benefit is the fact that Congress is pretty much done with legislating for the year, which means that the intra-party fighting over policy that we saw over health care and then tax reform, will not be a factor. The issue of DACA could emerge as a pressure point for the party should the courts rule on the issue before the fall election. But, the drama around the president’s personal life or even his choices in cabinet personnel (which has been dominating most of the month) aren’t the kinds of things that push GOPers away from supporting the president.

Since early March, Trump’s job approval has ticked up, but it is not any higher than it has been at previous points in his presidency. We will know things are really different this time around if Trump’s approval ratings break through – or at least continue to stay at — his current polling ceiling. However, it seems as if Trump’s floor and his ceiling are well-established with little, it seems, that can fundamentally move them. The more pressing question, especially for Republicans going into 2018, is if Trump’s approval ratings will be on the higher end of the range (say 42-45%) than on the lower end (like 33-38%). While both are empirically pretty terrible numbers for any president, GOP members could have a fighting chance at preserving their House majority if Trump is on the higher end, while the lower end is likely to produce a tsunami-like wipeout.