The impeachment issue works because it speaks to reluctant Trump supporters, the “I wish he wouldn’t tweet so much” brigade. Message to them: If you stay home, you’re not just teaching the president a lesson, enabling a course correction on the way to the next presidential election. You’re actually voting in that presidential election now, whether you know it or not. So show up and vote for two more years!

It’s also a smart strategy because it’s … sort of true. Think of what we’ve learned already about Trump misconduct without congressional subpoena power. Imagine what might be revealed if the Democrats got hold of gavels in the House, Senate, or both. It might not literally lead to impeachment, but non-stop scandal politics would be almost guaranteed.

Which leads to the most important point. To survive, President Trump needs more than Republican votes, more than a Republican hold on one chamber or the other. He needs active Republican complicity in his future efforts to deflect investigations, whatever they may pursue.