According to the survey of 5,100 adults, conducted this week for The New York Times by the online polling firm SurveyMonkey, only a third of Americans think their taxes will go down in 2018 if the bill passes next week as widely expected.

That is at odds not only with the Republican talking points but also with the assessment of most economists who have studied the bill. The Tax Policy Center, a research group, recently found that under the Senate version of the plan, roughly three-quarters of American households would pay less in taxes next year. Last-minute changes made by a House-Senate conference committee could lead to a tax cut for even more Americans.