Perhaps the biggest question for Tuesday is what happens to voters who cast a ballot for Rep. Mo Brooks in the first round. Brooks finished third in the primary with 20 percent to Moore’s 39 percent and Strange’s 33 percent, and only the top two finishers advanced to the runoff. Brooks, who was attacked by the Senate Leadership Fund during the first round, has endorsed Moore in the runoff. Barring a large increase in turnout from the first round, Strange likely needs to bring in the lion’s share of Brooks’s voters to win the runoff. That’s probably why Trump’s Friday night rally was held in Madison County, which is in Brooks’s 5th Congressional District and is home to the largest share of non-Moore, non-Strange voters in the first round of the primary.
To give you an idea of whether Moore is maintaining his advantage in the runoff, I’ve created the following scrollable table.