The Congressional Budget Office said insurers would increase their rates for popular mid-level plans by an estimated 20 percent in 2018 and 25 percent in 2020 and subsequent years to make up for the loss “cost-sharing reductions” that reimburse them for picking up low-income customers’ costs.

As a result, federal deficits would increase by $194 billion over the 10-year budget window — despite savings from axing the payments — largely because subsidies rise with the cost of mid-tier plans on the insurance exchanges set up under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, the analysts said in a report requested by House Democratic leaders.