Ukraine’s leaders may be giving up on reuniting the country

While still weakened by corruption, Ukraine has stabilised its economy, pushed through some reforms and rebuilt its military. “When I came to power we had no army, a massive budget deficit, a 50% inflation rate and no money,” says Mr Poroshenko. “Today I have one of the strongest armies in Europe, with unique experience of fighting a hybrid war against Russia.” Ukraine’s combat-ready forces total 250,000 men, of whom 60,000 are deployed in the east. In Donbas they have been creeping forward, seizing positions in the “grey zone” occupied by separatists in violation of the agreements.

Yet Russia, too, has been building. It has created a force estimated at 40,000 men in the separatist territories, including, covertly, about 5,000 Russian soldiers. It has rebuilt the local administration, repaired road infrastructure and eliminated some of the unrulier rebel commanders. (One such commander, Mikhail Tolstykh, better known as “Givi”, was blown up with a grenade launcher on February 8th.) Mr Putin now hopes to use the Minsk process to incorporate this separatist administration into Ukraine. Yulia Mostovaya, the editor of Zerkalo Nedeli, an independent weekly, says this would be like implanting a cancerous cell into Ukraine’s body. It would give Russia control over a portion of the electorate and could lead to further disintegration of the country. Many in Kiev would prefer to preserve the status quo.