Liberal media outlets have noted the Gorsuch-Kennedy connection. The New York Times reports that Trump’s elevation of Gorsuch to the high court is an attempt “to show Justice Kennedy, 80, that should he step down at some point, Trump would select as his replacement a nominee similar to Judge Gorsuch, and not one so inflammatory or outside the mainstream as to be unacceptable to Justice Kennedy.”
Former Supreme Court clerks almost never speak for attribution when it comes to discussion of their former bosses, especially regarding their retirement plans. Nonetheless, a few have provided background information since Gorsuch’s name floated to the top of the Trump appointment list. “Those who know Kennedy wouldn’t at all be surprised if he retired this June. He is at the apex of a 29-year-career on the Court and has made his mark,” one former clerk told me. “In addition, it’s no secret that at age 80 he is slowing down a bit and I’d say it’s more likely than not he will leave at the end of this year’s term in June.”
Other clerks agree. “I would put it at 50–50 that he leaves at the end of the term,” a former Kennedy clerk told the Washington Post. Senator Orrin Hatch, a former chairman of the Judiciary Committee, agrees that the Gorsuch appointment might convince Kennedy that his successor on the Court will be someone he respects. “He might feel like it’s time to retire, too, because he’s talked about that a few times,” Hatch told the New York Times.
If Justice Kennedy should retire soon or in a year or two, the general consensus among Trump aides is that the seat is likely to go to a woman. “A vacancy created by Kennedy would be fraught with symbolism that the Court could really move in a more conservative direction,” one aide told me. “Democrats will be under enormous pressure from their base to fight the Trump nominee to the death. A highly qualified woman with a compelling life story would help.”
Join the conversation as a VIP Member