A very small group of people with outsized representation in the media is not going to swing the presidential election. Seems implausible, but it’s true.
A group of Republican-aligned voters and activists early on in the campaign embraced the “Never Trump” badge and have, to Donald Trump supporters’ dismay, actually followed through on the “never” part. But polls show this group of people is small and likely electorally meaningless: Trump is probably going to win a roughly equal share of Republicans as Clinton is of Democrats.
That’s not to say that Trump is going to hit any kind of historical high mark in the share of Republicans who support him. It’s just that his support among Republicans reflects that he is incredibly disliked in general, as both he and his opponent are two of the most-disliked people ever to run for president. Also, as the election gets closer, partisans are retreating to their bases. A new ABC News poll shows Trump with 86 percent support among Republicans, up from 80 percent mere weeks ago. He’s going to win larger percentages of solid-Republican voting blocs than Clinton is going to win for Democrats.