One thing that we can tell from the Catalist data is the shift in black participation in early voting. In Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio, blacks make up a much smaller percentage of the early vote than they did four years ago. In Ohio and North Carolina, that shift is due in part to changes in early voting laws, with Ohio cutting a week during which voters could both register and vote. North Carolina’s shifts have been well-documented in the press, with a federal judge stating that the change in the law was directly meant to cut black voter — and, therefore, Democratic — participation. It seems to have worked. Democrats were much more of the early vote electorate four years ago.
The flip side of that decrease among black voters in North Carolina and Georgia is a big increase in the density of the white vote. In Wisconsin, as well, more of the early vote electorate is white than in 2012. That suggests an advantage for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who polls better with white voters than nonwhite voters, particularly in more Republican states.
In Nevada (as we mentioned above) and Arizona, the density of Hispanic voters has increased since 2012.
Catalist doesn’t have data available for 2012 in Florida, but Daniel Smith, political science professor at the University of Florida, does. By his estimates, the early vote among Hispanics in the state is up 152 percent over the same time in 2012.