Among all registered voters, 45% now say they will vote for the Democrat, 42% for the Republican in the four-way contest. Looking only at likely voters, Clinton’s share is 46%, Trump’s 43%. The Libertarian and Green Party candidates receive 4% and 2% respectively. 4% expressed no preference. Clinton’s biggest lead in the Economist/YouGov polls since the two party conventions has been only six points.
This poll was conducted after James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, sent his letter to selected members of Congress, stating that emails from the private server Clinton used while Secretary of State had been found in a separate investigation. Nearly every likely voter (95%) had heard about the letter. Half viewed as a very serious problem. 61% say Clinton hasn’t been completely honest about her role in this. Two in three (including 31% of Clinton’s own supporters) believe Clinton did something wrong by using personal email for government business.
But those opinions are not new. And while there are some changes in overall assessments of the candidates, voting patterns have changed little. Clinton leads with those 45 years of age and younger, Trump has an advantage with older voters.