Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 44% back Trump. Another 3% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party. This marks a narrowing of Clinton’s 50% to 40% lead from one month ago and her late August advantage of 48% to 40% over Trump.
“Clinton is still in the lead, but the race has tightened in the past four weeks. It looks like this shift was in the works even before Friday’s FBI bombshell, which has made only a small contribution to this overall narrowing,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support. The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news. Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news.
The Republican nominee has regained some support among white voters, mainly among women, since October. He currently leads among all white voters by 50% to 43%, which is similar to his 48% to 39% advantage back in August. However, the white vote was divided at 46% for Trump and 45% for Clinton just one month ago.