In Florida, which tracks turnout by race and ethnicity, Hispanics have so far cast about 14 percent of the 5.7 million early and absentee ballots cast. That puts Hispanics far ahead of where they were in casting early ballots relative to 2012.

That follows Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale’s analysis, which notes that through Wednesday alone, Hispanic turnout in 2016 had already exceeded — by 170,000 ballots — Hispanic early voting in the entire 2012 cycle. And Schale noted that many of them are first-time voters, who Democrats see as crucial targets in the early-voting period.

Similar signs suggest Democrats are seeing robust Hispanic turnout in Arizona as well. And even Texas, considered out of reach for Democrats, is seeing a surge across the state’s most populous counties…

Still, there are meaningful reasons to believe many public polls aren’t capturing the Hispanic vote accurately. The national polling of Hispanics is erratic, with some polls suggesting that Trump is holding his own among Latino voters, and others portending a wave of Hispanics looming to defeat Trump and haunt the GOP for elections to come.