It turns out that pushing those who still say they “don’t know” to pick a candidate doesn’t have a major impact. Clinton is up by the same margin when you allow “don’t know” responses, at 42 percent to Trump’s 39 percent. Johnson got 6 percent and Stein got 3 percent when “don’t know” was still available.

Nine percent of voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for, meaning there is a small but important group for either side to convince in the last days before the election.

For the majority who have already made up their minds, the first presidential debate and a video of Trump making lewd comments about women were the most important events in picking a candidate. Thirty-five percent said the lewd video of Trump was “very important” to their decision, 30 percent said the same of the first presidential debate.