It might seem that Democrats have built up a big early lead. More than 1.3 million Democrats have already voted compared to 990,000 Republicans.

But the raw numbers don’t account for the 2012 results. President Barack Obama built an early lead then but got trounced by Mitt Romney on Election Day…

As of Saturday, the final day of early voting, slightly fewer Democrats had cast ballots while 125,000 more Republicans have voted this time. If this election shapes up like the last, Donald Trump would win North Carolina…

Other early voting trends favor Trump. While polls show Clinton has a commanding lead among African Americans, the share of black votes so far is down 5 percentage points. Trump does much better with white voters, who increased their share by 22% this election. The North Carolina Republican Party, in a statement Monday, bragged about the changes in turnout as a sign of the “North Carolina Obama coalition crumbling.”