As you can see, a less aggressive approach to estimating the home-stretch error would have given a Clinton win probability of 91-93%. That is about as low as the PEC approach could ever plausibly get.

I have also included the prediction if polls are assumed to be off by 5% in either direction on average. It is at this point that we finally get to a win probability that is as uncertain as the FiveThirtyEight approach. However, a 5% across-the-board error in state polls, going against the front-runner, has no precedent in data that I can see.

Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, even the most conservative assumptions lead to a Clinton win probability of 91%.