Clinton holds a 4-point edge among likely voters in the historically blue-tilting Pennsylvania, and Trump tops Clinton by 5 with voters in red-leaning Arizona. Though both states tilt in the same direction as their 2012 results, the leaders’ margins are tighter than their predecessors’ final leads were in each state.
Florida appears to be as tight a contest as ever, with Clinton at 49% among likely voters and Trump at 47%. That’s an apparent shift in Clinton’s direction since the last CNN/ORC poll there in September before the presidential debates began, but still a within-margin-of-error race.
In Nevada, the poll suggests the race has also shifted, with Trump now ahead there 49% to 43%, with 5% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson, compared with a two-point Clinton edge in mid-October.
While that shift is statistically significant, it could be reflective of timing: The mid-October poll came at a particularly bad time for Trump in most polls, following the second presidential debate and the revelation of a tape in which Trump talked about sexually aggressive behavior toward women using vulgar language.