Now he’s at 198, needing another 72.
Let’s start with Ohio, a state where Trump has consistently performed better than he has in other swing states. The last four independent pollsters found a tie, a tie, Trump ahead by four points, and Trump ahead by one point. A new poll by Remington Research, a GOP firm, puts Trump ahead by four points. USA Today compares Trump to the legendary Youngstown Democratic congressman Jim Traficant, and there’s some fascinating parallels: populism, denunciation of trade deals, outrageous quotes and a sense of humor, and an odd haircut.
I’ve got real worries about Trump’s get-out-the-vote operation in this state — or perhaps more accurately, I think Hillary Clinton’s will be much better. But let’s assume Trump cleans up among those blue-collar, working-class white voters and puts Ohio in the Trump pile. That puts him at 216.
Florida? A lot of recent polls have Hillary a small lead, but the new Bloomberg survey has Trump ahead by 2 points.
More than 2 million Floridians have cast ballots already. Registered Republicans traditionally are more likely to vote early, and we’re seeing the same trend this year: the latest numbers show nearly 876,000 Republicans have cast ballots compared to more than 862,000 Democrats. More than 336,000 voters with no party affiliation have voted. This is another one of those states where you would really like to see a presidential campaign with a perfectly-tuned, cooking-with-all-four-burners get-out-the-vote program.