The density of the Republican vote so far this year has dropped about 2 percentage points. The density of votes from Democrats, though, hasn’t really changed at all. The difference was made up by unaffiliated voters — who, since 2012, now make up a little over 2 percent more of the registered voters of the state. Since 2012, the density of registered Democrats hasn’t changed.

In other words, the early vote in Florida is bigger than it was four years ago, but the distribution of that vote looks about the way you’d expect.

To some extent, this picture isn’t what either campaign wants to see. Clinton would like to see a bigger shift in big Texas counties to offset rural areas and she’d like to see a shift in Florida. Trump wants to not have to worry about Texas, have good news in Nevada and take some new ground in Florida — where, we’ll remind you, Mitt Romney lost.