But here’s another possibility: Trump heads into Cleveland having just barely secured the 1,237 “pledged” delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. In a last minute bid to flip delegates and stop Trump, Ted Cruz persuades Marco Rubio to be his running mate and secures the support of most of his delegates. Because of Cruz’s success in packing delegate slates at the state level, a majority of the convention delegates actually support him, even though 1,237 are required by party rules on vote for Trump on the first ballot. Who, then, do they vote for on the vice presidential ballot—Trump’s choice, or Cruz’s?
“This is such a crazy election cycle, I wouldn’t even venture a guess,” replied a chuckling John Sununu, the former New Hampshire governor and noted Trump antagonist, when I posed this question to him. “This is so unique, different, and unusual that anyone who really thinks they can give you a straight answer doesn’t understand how crazy the situation really is.”