When President Obama took office, Iraq was stable. Now there are four failed states in the Middle East—Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—and the potential for many more. This is the foreign policy legacy to which Hillary Clinton is committed.

President Obama is very good at advocating and implementing policies of which the public disapproves. Obamacare, the Bergdahl trade, the phony war on ISIS, the executive amnesty, gun control, the Iran deal, no changes to the Syrian refugee program—he’s been persistent in his flouting of majority wishes and constitutional norms. But Clinton doesn’t have his talent. She doesn’t have his fan boys.

Clinton must assume, as most Democrats do, that changes in our population and culture allow liberals to be much more dismissive and contemptuous of opposing viewpoints than they have been in the past. Clinton must assume, as most Democrats do, that the electorate will find the alternative to Democratic rule so repulsive that it will support whomever John Oliver tells it to. Clinton must assume, as many Democrats do, that the economy will be good enough, that Obama will be popular enough, that the world will be stable enough in November 2016 to ensure that the Clintons return to the White House.

That’s her bet. Did I mention it’s a risky one?