Yes, it’s a lock that the Democrat will win the minority vote, but by the same margins?

As far as women are concerned, Kerry won 51 percent in 2004, while Obama won 56 percent in 2008. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, could she top Obama’s performance with women, given the party’s other problems? That’s another risky Democratic bet.

Kerry won 54 percent of voters age 18 to 29. Four years later, Obama won 66 percent. The president’s showing among those voters fell to 60 percent in 2012, but it’s not hard to imagine the next Democratic candidate falling short of even that performance.

Then there are white voters. Obama’s overall job approval rating among whites is a weak 32 percent, according to Gallup. Two-thirds of whites do not have a college degree, and the president’s approval rating among them is 27 percent.