While his conservative record will be sufficient to counteract Tea Party frustration, Bush will be able to sell himself as part of a Republican cohort that is seeking to bring new people into the Republican fold and who is sensitive to the ways in which social and cultural issues have changed where the party stands on these issues.
His record on immigration, as well education (he supports Common Core, the program that is controversial with many, including conservatives), combined with his immediate family will make it much tougher for Democrats to paint him as far right of center, the strategy that has worked so well for them in recent years.
It is less clear how well he will be able to deal with some of the economic concerns facing the American electorate. Like most Republicans, he will face Democrats pointing to the evidence of economic recovery under President Obama, and he has close tied to the business, anti-tax establishment faction of the GOP that hurt Mitt Romney in 2012.
The housing market started to crash in Florida toward the end of his term, though it didn’t really take effect until after he got out. At the same time, he still will be able to tap into some of the anxiety of the middle class about the stability of this recovery, surely claiming credit for the current state of the Florida economy.