One executive, described as being “from a populous swing state,” expects his company to triple the rates on next year’s exchange policies.

Time to freak out about a death spiral? Not yet. Here’s some reason for caution:

1) All insurance is local. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about whether enrollment will get to the 6-7 million the administration projected. In some ways that’s much less relevant than what is happening at the state or county level, which is the level at which policies are sold. Some places will have a very small or very sick pool of customers for exchange policies, and those places will have huge increases in their policy costs. Others will have relatively large, robust pools, and the price increases in those areas will be less drastic.

We should be worried if one insurer in a populous swing state is planning to triple the price of his exchange policies. But you can’t extrapolate that nationwide — and the Hill won’t have spoken to executives from more than a handful of companies.