As you can see, Texas, the state with the highest percentage uninsured, ranked 27th in terms of adjusted Obamacare sign-ups. Overall, seven of the states with the top 10 uninsured percentages did not crack the top 10 states for Obamacare sign-ups by percentage, and six of the states didn’t make the top 26. The exceptions were Florida, California and Montana, which were on the top 10 of both lists.
To be clear, I’m not saying this proves anything definitively, as there are plenty of variables involved. This analysis does not include Medicaid enrollment, for instance, because about half of the states aren’t participating, so the numbers wouldn’t be comparable. Additionally, Florida and California are among the nation’s largest states, so they’ll drive national data more than, say, New Mexico.
But if Obamacare is to make a more significant dent in the number of the uninsured, it’s probably going to need deeper penetration into those states with the highest rates of uninsured residents.