Republicans got 38 percent of Hispanic votes in 2010, enough to win the total national vote. In the future, Hispanics are likely to vote more Democratic than average, but not hugely so. And they’re likely to become 12 to 15 percent of the electorate someday, not 20 or 25 percent.

The third group of non-whites are Asians, 2 percent of the electorate in 2008 and 2010. They’re the least Democratic non-white group, 62 percent for Obama in 2008 and 58 percent for House Democrats in 2010. Current polling suggests similar numbers this year.

But Asians aren’t a single cohesive group and may not be reliably Democratic over time. They voted Republican for president in the 1990s.

Most Asian-Americans live in heavily Democratic California and Obama’s birth state Hawaii. In target states, they formed 3 percent of the electorate in Nevada and Virginia in 2008.