Given that, a number of well-connected pollsters expect that in the end, Ohio’s results will be fairly close to the national results. If Mitt Romney wins the national vote, they expect to see him win Ohio, too. And they would be very surprised to see a close national race and a blowout in Ohio, or a close race in Ohio and a blowout nationally.
Finally, of course, there is the question of who is really ahead in Ohio. Going back over the last 15 polls in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the state, Obama led in 12 and three were tied. None showed Romney leading, so it’s safe to say Obama is leading in Ohio. Yet Team Romney views the race as closer than the 2.3 percent Obama margin in the RealClearPolitics average would indicate. And not only is it closer than 2.3 percent, they say, there is also the issue of Romney’s lead among independents in several polls. In past Ohio elections, they argue, the candidate who won independents also won the election. Obama, John Kasich, Ted Strickland, Rob Portman — they’re all winning candidates who fit that pattern. So watch the independents, Team Romney argues, in hopes the race will eventually line up their way.