How Ohio could break for Romney

In 2004, the Ohio exit polls found that of the 11 percent of voters who decided in the last week of the campaign, John Kerry won 60 percent to 40 percent. That suggests that in the last week, Kerry closed the gap by about 2.2 points. In 2004, obviously President Bush had enough of a lead that Kerry’s gains turned out to be too little, too late. If there’s a similar number of late deciders breaking toward Romney as they did the challenger in 2004, then it could potentially be enough to put him over the top. It just depends which polls are closer to the truth. If Obama is in fact winning Ohio by four or five points, then it’s very unlikely to see how Romney closes the gap over the next week and a half. If, however, the race is tied there, or Obama has a very narrow edge, then it’s possible that a similar break to the one Kerry had would be enough for Romney to take the Buckeye state, and likely, the presidency.