Post-convention bounces just aren't what they used to be

But do you notice a pattern here? The three smallest bounces for the challenging candidates came in the last three elections. Bounces aren’t what they used to be, perhaps because voters are saturated with information months in advance of an election, increased partisanship and sterilized conventions that may have become too polished for their own good.

The catch is that each of these things is a structural factor, and therefore might predict that Mr. Obama won’t get much of a bounce either. Maybe this is just the new normal; the assumption that our forecast model had made in advance of the convention was that Mr. Romney would get only a four-point bounce.

And yet: the incumbent party did itself some good in each of the last three conventions…

So I’m a bit torn between the “par” and “bogey” interpretations of the convention for Mr. Romney. It was clearly not a total loss. His campaign has been largely on-message since it left Tampa. There are signs that Mr. Romney’s favorability ratings have perked up a bit, along with his standing among Latino voters.