“It’s possible to win without Ohio. But I wouldn’t want to risk it.”

On the eve of the Republican convention, a senior strategist with a Republican “super PAC,” who would share the group’s strategic thinking only on the condition of anonymity, said Mr. Romney would need a “real surge” and “a reset to the dynamics there” to gain an edge over Mr. Obama in Ohio.

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With many automobile manufacturers and parts makers, Ohio’s economy has benefited from the administration’s bailout of the industry. The state’s unemployment rate of 7.2 percent in July was more than a percentage point lower than the national average. And while Mr. Obama’s aides do not feel overconfident, they are pleased to see that Democrats remain in command of the race, in a state where Republicans dominated in the 2010 elections…

But the Republicans had a setback on Friday when a federal judge reversed a new state law that halted early voting on the weekend before Election Day. In 2008, that final weekend was seen as giving Mr. Obama an advantage, especially as African-American churchgoers organized trips to the polls on Sunday.

The early voting accounted for 100,000 ballots in 2008, roughly 2 percent of the total cast. That is no small number in such a hard-fought swing state, especially this year. Republicans said they would appeal the judge’s ruling.

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