Zero bounce? A pessimistic preview of the convention

American politics is more divided than it has been in generations–and the American electorate is starting to reflect those divisions, with 9 of 10 likely voters already certain which way their votes will go. The polls–that is, those polls that don’t offer up ridiculous Democrat-heavy samples–have been neck-and-neck, and stable, for the past several weeks. There simply are not that undecided many voters out there to convince, and they are difficult to reach. Romney’s best hope is that undecided voters tend to break for the challenger.

Otherwise, there is not much the Republican party can do this week that has not already been done. Adding Rep. Paul Ryan has encouraged and mobilized the conservative base. Focusing on Barack Obama’s “you didn’t build that” comment has given the campaign a coherent economic message. Getting ahead of the Todd Akin controversy has minimized the damage to the national ticket. What’s left is to get out the vote–and while that process begins in earnest at the Republican National Convention, the Romney/Ryan campaign must rely on preparations made beforehand. And whatever “bounce” emerges from the Republican convention may be matched or canceled out by the Democratic convention that follows during the week after Labor Day.